تحلیلی بر رابطه سرانه کاربری های زمین و اندازه شهر در طرح‌های جامع شهرهای ایران

برنامه ­ریزی کاربری زمین، تعیین­ کننده بسیاری از ابعاد گسترش و توسعه شهری در آینده شهرها بوده و می­تواند از چالشی­ ترین بخش­های فرایند تهیه طرح­ های جامع باشد. هرچند در فرایند تهیه طرح ­های جامع شهری ایران، تلاش­هایی برای تعیین منطقی این سرانه­ ها صورت گرفته، اما عمدتاً متکی بر متون غربی و یا براساس سلایق و تجارب حرفه ­ای تهیه­ کنندگان آنها و غالباً فاقد مبانی نظری بوده است. در این میان، می­توان رابطه سرانه کاربری­ها با اندازه شهر را در زمره مهم­ترین موضوعات مورد پژوهش منظور کرد. در این پژوهش، رابطه سرانه کاربری­ها با اندازه شهرها در تعداد 40 طرح و با استفاده از روش­های کمی مورد تحلیل واقع شد. برای رابطه­ های همبستگی، مدلسازی آماری از طریق تحلیل­های پیش­بینی و توابع منتخب آن صورت گرفت. بر اساس تحلیل انجام شده در خصوص رابطه همبستگی میان اندازه شهرها و سرانه کاربری­ها، مشخص گردید شیوه نظام ­مندی برای اکثریت سرانه­ ها وجود نداشته و سرانه و سهم کاربری­ های شهری، لزوماً همسو عمل نکرده ­اند. یافته ­های این تحقیق می­تواند به عنوان چارچوبی برای تحلیل و ارزیابی سرانه­های پیشنهادی در طرح­های جامع شهری مورد استفاده قرار گیرد.

Land use planning is a key and challengable issue in the process of urban comprehencive plans, determining many aspects of future expansion and development of cities. A projected land use table in urban development plans seems a quantitative figure, showing per capita land uses. However, it must have been the results of various studies on population, cultural, social, economic, environmental and physical subjects. Since the issue of per capita land use planning is a base for various urban activities, analysis of this issue is important in a study on land uses analysis. The major aims for determination of per capita land use are to response to the locational and spatial society needs, in the process of rapid urbanization. Per capita land uses are quantitative illustrations of policies, methods and models for land uses, land subdivision, spatial distribution of activities and zonning. It is a key factor affecting construction and population densities, development level, urban design, and city vision. In the process of comprehensive plans provision in Iran, it has been tried to determine per capita land uses in a rational way. However, it has been mainly on the basis of the western literature, or individual and personal perceptions of planners, lacking theoretical and analytical bases. A major challenge in relation to per capita land uses in Iran can be its inconsistencies with various conditions of Iranian cities regarding population, culture, social, economy, environment and climate. In this regard, the relation between per capital land use and city cize is perhaps one of the most important issue to be examined. This is an important subject in Iran, because of Iranain urban hierarcy and city cize situation. The aim of this research is the analysis of per capita land uses in Iranian urban comprehensive plans. The literature on this issue was reviewed and conceptual framework of the sudy was formed. The research method of the study was based on both quantitative and qualitative methods. The relation between per capita land uses and city size was examined and analysed in 40 Iranian urban comprehensive plans. Sampling model and selection of cities was based on two factors, population size and and climate region. For this, 17 samples with less than 100000 population, 8 samples with population between 100000 to 200000, 10 samples with population between 200000 to 500000, 2 samples with population between 1 to 2 millions, and 3 samples with population over 1 million were selected. For correlation relations between city size and per capita, statistical moddeling was used. In the analysis of correlation relations, several softwares were used, including SPSS, Excel, Linear, Logarithmic, Inverse, Quadratic, Cubic, Compound, Power, Growth, and Logistic. Correlations between city size and various land uses were as follow: -0.346 for residential, -0.068 for commercial, -0.317 for educational, -0.198 for higher education, -0.320 for health and clinics, -0.127 for sport, 0.028 for parks and green spaces, -0.368 for cultural and religous spaces. Regression and correlation relations showed that there has not been a rational and scientific method for determination of per capita land uses in the selected urban comprehensive plans

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